5 Ways to Predict If You Will Go Bald and 5 Ways to Deal with It If You Do (The Nick Shell System)

If you’re a guy who’s starting to see possible signs of a receding hairline and you’re trying to figure out if you will indeed go bald, then you’ve come to the right place. I am a YouTuber with nearly 2500 subscribers and over 1500 videos devoted to the this topic. Hi, my name is Nick Shell.

While I’m not a professional or an expert on the topic, I have accidentally stumbled upon some findings, which I have turned into my own original theories. Based on my constant interactions with my subscribers, it appears my theories on predicting hair loss are accurate at least 80% of the time.

Some of the things you are about to read have not been published in print, until now. I call this The Nick Shell System. I am the owner, discoverer, and creator of these ideas. According to my theories, here are 5 ways to predict if you will go bald.

  1. Check for signs of balding or thinning. (Norwood 3 or beyond, or diffuse thinning.)

If you look at your hairline and it’s either straight across with some minor receding on your temples, which is classified as Norwood 1, or your hairline makes a “V” shape but there are 90 degree angles at the corners, which is classified as Norwood 2, then there is no need to fear yet. This is normal. As you progress into adulthood, it is expected for your hairline to naturally mature a little bit like this.

As long as you see no thinning spots, especially at the back of your head, then you are safe. Otherwise, this is considered “diffuse” thinning, and therefore overwrites the Norwood system; indicating you are indeed balding.

However, if your hairline makes an “M” shape, and the corners of your hairline are rounded off (which is classified as Norwood 3), then you officially have a receding hairline and have begun the first stage of the process of balding. It is common for some thinning to also accommodate the Norwood 3 stage.

2. Use a photo of yourself at age 1 to see a prediction of what your hairline will look like at age 35.

I discovered that a boy’s hairline when he is exactly a year old serves as a projection of his hairline and hair density when he becomes 35 years old. I figured this out, completely on my own, when I remembered that if you double a child’s height when they are 2 years old, it serves as a prediction of their height as a fully grown adult. My mother did this with both my sister and me; the results were 100% accurate. I did this with my own son, and it is predicted he will be one inch shorter than me.

Using this logic, I imagined there was likely a certain age of a boy where his hairline would be the same as when he becomes a mature adult. I knew this could not be based off of a newborn boy’s hair, because I know the first coat of hair falls out within the first couple weeks or so.

I found that age 1 was the more accurate stable predictor. From there, I settled on age 35 as the predicted future hairline because that happens to be the age in which men typically show more obvious signs of hair loss, or not.

By recording a video of myself at age 35 (which for me was last year) alongside a photo of myself at age 1, I demonstrate how my theory holds up.

3. Determine whether or not you could grow a full beard by the time you were age 18.

Another one of my findings from being a “Hair Loss YouTuber” is that typically, men who lose their hair sooner in adulthood were the same boys in high school who were hairy enough to grow a full connected beard before they graduated high school; like around age 16.

I define “full beard” by the fact if you didn’t shave for a day, then the next morning you had visible stubble all the way across your jaw line, chin, and above your upper lip.

If this was the case for you, it is more likely you will be at least Norwood 3 with some thinning by your 35th birthday; meaning you will likely lose most of your hair throughout the rest of your life. However, if you struggled to grow a full beard in high school, and envied the guys like me who could, chances are that you’ll keep your hair.

I discovered this concept after spending my first summer in Thailand back in 2003, when I couldn’t help but notice most middle-aged men still had all their hair, but struggled to grow even a mustache or goatee.

It’s in your DNA to either be balding and bearded, or to keep your hair but have minimal body hair.

And in case you’re interested in trying out some shampoo that contains argan oil for hair loss, here’s a link to Amazon.


4. Consider how close to age 35 you currently are.

As I’ve already mentioned, the exact age of 35 for a man is an important in predicting hair loss. Another finding I have realized is that most men who are Norwood 3 with thinning by the time they turn 35 years old are the ones who go on to continue losing their hair for the rest of their lives. Meanwhile, a man who still has the straight across hairline (Norwood 1) or the “V” shape (Norwood 2) and has no thinning, is most likely to keep most of his hair for most of his life.

This is another way to determine whether a man has either the “balding and bearded” genes, or the “full head of hair but struggled in his youth to grow a beard.”

5. Accept that your race and ethnicity increases or decreases your chance of balding.

Going back to how I noticed the concept of how the Thai men kept their hair but couldn’t grow beards, there is truth in that certain races are more prone to hair loss but less likely to grow thick body hair in their youth.

Based on hundreds of interactions with my YouTube subscribers, this seems to be how it works:

Balding and bearded: European, Jewish, Middle Eastern, Indian

In-between both categories: African

Full head of hair but struggle to grow body hair in their youth: Asian

My theory on this is the less Asian you are, the more likely you are to be in the “balding and bearded category.” So for example, a Mexican man is less likely to lose his hair by age 35 as compared to a Norwegian man, because Mexicans’ DNA consists of Aztec and/or Mayans, who were descendants of Asians.

This would be similar to a Filipino man, whose DNA is likely a mix of Asian and some European.

And if you’re interested in taking a DNA test like I did, here’s the link to MyHeritage.

Now that I’ve shared with you my 5 ways to predict hair loss, I want to close with 5 ways to deal with it if you fall into the “balding and bearded” category:

  1. Take a prescription drug to maintain the hair you still have.
  2. Get a hair transplant.
  3. Have tattoo-pigment done, in which the appearance of hair is tattooed on your scalp; given that you keep your hair extremely short.
  4. Try the “natural” approach by experimenting with applying essential oils like Rosemary and Argan Oil, become a vegan, exercise regularly, avoid stress, and stop smoking if you do; all of which may help slow down the balding process.
  5. Accept your fate and new identity as a confident and stylish “balding and bearded” man, by choosing to completely own the “shaved head” look, or at least a buzz cut- I recommend no longer than a #2 guard all over.Personally, I identify as a “balding advocate”, meaning that once I move beyond my current “Norwood 3 and thinning” stage around my 40th birthday in 3 and a half years, I plan to start shaving my head. I always expected to go bald; I just thought it would have already happened by now.

I definitely fall into all 5 of the categories of “balded and bearded”:

It was 6 and a half years ago on my 30th birthday that I first noticed my signs of balding, including thinning in the front and back of my head, in addition to the Norwood 3 hairline. My 1 year-old photo perfectly matched my hairline and density at age 35. I could grow a full beard 20 years ago, at age 16. I am already past age 35. And I while I do have 23% Mayan/Aztec DNA (according to my DNA test with MyHeritage), the majority of my DNA is German, Dutch, Sephardic Jewish, and Middle Eastern.

I am not ashamed to transition to my identity as “balding and bearded” in a few years. I think it will actually be pretty cool.

That’s it.

If you have found this article helpful, or at least intriguing, I invite you to check on my YouTube Channel on hair loss, simply titled, Nick Shell.

You can join a growing community of men who are learning to focus on what they can control and not on what they can’t; especially when it comes to hair loss.

Let’s continue the discussion there!



11 thoughts on “5 Ways to Predict If You Will Go Bald and 5 Ways to Deal with It If You Do (The Nick Shell System)

  1. All my life I have had a secret wish, a wish I never confessed to anyone, even my wife, for fear everyone would believe that I was nuts. I loved male pattern baldness. I wanted to go bald. The urge to go bald only got stronger down through the years. Several of my college classmates were already going bald and I was insanely jealous of them. My wish finally came true in my early 50s, as I noticed the first hopeful sings of thinning hair in back and a receding hairline in front. Any other guy out there would have panicked or sunk into depression, but I was thrilled.
    The first thing I did when I realized that I was finally going bald was make an appointment to see a hair restoration specialist. I went primarily for confirmation that I had male pattern baldness and an educated guess as to how long it would take for me to go bald. I was not interested in preventing MPB or regrowing my hair. After examining my scalp hair and a few tests he told me what I was hoping to hear. I was going bald and it was happening fast. He warned me that if I didn’t do something about it immediately it would be too late to save my hair. I had no interest in baldness cures or prevention, so I thanked him for his diagnosis and left. The next thing I did was celebrate. My wife and I both celebrated because, to my surprise and delight, she also wanted me to go bald. I moved on with my life even as my hairline rapidly receded and a bald spot in back quickly spread out and forward to meet my receding hairline, just as the hair replacement specialist had warned me. When they met, the top of my head was finally free of unwanted hair. I was finally Norwood 6 bald. I celebrated again. And I celebrate a little every time I see my shiny bald reflection in a mirror. Since then in every photo of me without a hat I wear a smile. I can’t help smiling.
    Fear of going bald is almost palpable out there and confirmation of MPB no doubt brings agony and even despair for most guys,especially young guys. I can understand that. I panicked when I realized it was happening to me, even though all my life I couldn’t wait to go bald. I couldn’t go bald fast enough. Thankfully, it happened fast: less than two years. But going bald fast is a drastic change and I was afraid of how it would affect my relationship with my wife, my family, my friends and my coworkers. My wife was thrilled, everyone else just accepted the new bald me. I’ve even gotten a few sincere compliments from people who knew me before I went bald. Perhaps it’s because I love MPB so much that I feel good about myself and feel happy and at ease around people. But I never talk about it. When the subject does comes up, I just smile and say it’s OK. When someone commiserates with me on the loss of my hair, I just nod and say it is OK. When someone says I look better bald, I smile and blush. When I get good natured jokes and teasing about being bald, I smile and relax and just enjoy the teasing. I love being teased about being bald, because is reminds me that I AM bald and how lucky I am to be bald. When the subject comes up and my wife is present, she tell everyone how much she loves it. And she really does love it. I love it when she kisses me on to of my shiny bald head. What a turn on! In conclusion, the moment I realized that male pattern baldness would be happening to me was magic. After twenty years, that magic spell has never broken.


    • Love your article. The majority of men have a far more defined head shape than the majority of women, hence being well groomed with shaven or close clipped hair they still look great, at least to me for sure and seems to many others also. It never looks good or natural when the truly male pattern bolding men keep struggling by various means to keep the illusion of retained hair. Similarly for guys not bold with significant hair loss it’s also better to find the best very short cut suiting the remaining hair and persons overall look, again keeping it well groomed and not try to compensate.

      Furthermore, the costs, efforts etc to fake hair that naturally departs is a crazy waste, sometimes even harmful or uncomfortable up to restricting freedom in activities re swimming etc..That is not appealing to most women to be with a higher maintenance man than they could ever be themselves.

      I know of a 72 year old with high quality wigs tapped to his head and each wig he posses costs $4,000 au.It looks ok , but it’s obviously fake as the hair pattern is only one 20 year old males at best have and hasn’t the thicker thinner pattern of the old guy who kept their hair.Understandable somewhat if he had a career in front of cameras at 72 , but for a labourer retiree in a regional town it signals vain insecure afraid of aging (has botox and stitching too). He still comes across as elderly fixes are limited re whole raging person. Plus re emerging health issues making him grumpier plus the inability to cope with be aging. Sad and shallow fooling no one.


  2. You actually make it seem really easy together with your presentation however I find this matter to be actually one thing which I believe I would never understand. It sort of feels too complicated and extremely huge for me. I’m taking a look forward to your next put up, I’ll try to get the grasp of it!


  3. Helpful information. Lucky me I found your web site by accident, and I’m shocked why this twist of fate didn’t came about in advance! I bookmarked it.


  4. Very interesting artıcle, although it’s just the height calculation which I don’t agree with (as I’ve witnessed on my midget baby cousin at 2 years old was around 80-90cm but has now aged 22 shot up to 197cm tall) perhaps there’s always exceptions to certain rules.


  5. Mike you are right, the height calculation is not that accurate in many cases.My brother turned out 10 cm more than toddler height, me 10 cm shorter, my sons also 10 cm taller. Though I do think the hair estimate is much more likely to be on track.


  6. Your findings are incorrect when it comes to me. I’m 28-years old, and while it still looks like I have most of my hair, I’m entering the “M” phase. I also can hardly grow any facial hair.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.